THIS DOCUMENT IS THE PROPERTY OF HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT
247
FAR EASTERN (JAPAN).
CONFIDENTIAL.
January 17, 1939.
SECTION 1.
[F 533/533/23]
Copy No. 133
Sir R. Craigie to Viscount Halifax. (Received January 17, 1939.)
(No. 1003.) My Lord,
Tokyo, December 13, 1938. WITH reference to my despatch No. 533 of the 22nd July, I have the honour to report that population statistics covering the six months ended the 30th June last, which were published in the Official Gazette on the 6th December, reveal a rapidly declining rate of natural increase. The number of births during this period is given as 1,082,756, a decrease of 65,027 as compared with the corresponding figure for 1937, while the number of deaths was 634,612, repre- senting an increase of 49,488 over the same period of last year. The natural increase of population was thus 448,144, as compared with 562,659 during the first half of 1937, representing a decline of 114,515.
2. Monthly figures for births and deaths, as given in the Gazette, are shown in the following table. Although some allowance must be made for seasonal fluctuations, the decreasing tendency in the number of births is very marked indeed :----
January February
March
April
May
June
Total
Births.
Deaths.
265,862
132,422
198,866
117,410
210,006
113,432
154,972
96,508
132,735
92,231
113,898
90,554
1,076,339
633,557
It will be seen that these totals differ somewhat from the final figures as shown in paragraph 1 above, a fact which is doubtless due to delay in registration.
3. A recent announcement in the Gazette gave the total population of Japan Proper as 72,222,700 as on the 1st October last, representing an increase of approximately 969,000 during the year ended the previous day. This, however, is an estimate based upon a somewhat crude demographic formula and bears little relation to the actual facts. It may, in fact, be concluded from the figures given above that it is highly improbable that such a large increase was attained.
4. It is reported in the press that the Ministry of Welfare view the situation with growing concern and envisage the prospect of a sharp decline both in the rate of increase and in the health of the population as the result of the despatch of the Japanese forces to China. It is understood that considerable sums are appropriated in the Ministry's estimates in the next budget for the provision of free medical attendance for infants and for the promotion of infant welfare in general.
I have, &c.
R. L. CRAIGIE.
[508 r-1]
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